The commercial companies’ international trade exposure is the backbone of the foreign exchange markets. Protection against unfavourable moves is an important reason why these markets are in existence, although it sometimes appears to be a chicken and egg situation – which came first and which produces the other? Commercial companies often trade in sizes that are insignificant to short term market moves, however, as the main currency markets can quite easily absorb hundreds of millions of dollars without any big impact. But it also clear that one of the decisive factors determining the long-term direction of a currency’s exchange rate is the overall trade flow. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered, however, due to exposures that are not commonly known to the majority of market participants.
Central Banks
The national central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. Ultimately, the central banks seek to control the money supply and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. As many central banks have very substantial foreign exchange reserves, the intervention power is significant. Among the most important responsibilities of a central bank is the restoration of an orderly market in times of excessive exchange rate volatility and the control of the inflationary impact of a weakening currency. Frequently, the mere expectation of central bank intervention is sufficient to stabilise a currency, but in case of aggressive intervention the actual impact on the short term supply/demand balance can lead to the desired moves in exchange rates. It is by no means always that a central bank achieves its objectives, however. If the market participants really wants to take on a central bank, the combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992-93 ERM collapse and in more recent times South East Asia.